Options

New tournament

We are launching new tournament in October 2022. More info can be found at www.forpol.cz.

About project OPTIONS

České priority, z.ú.

Project OPTIONS was a series of forecasting tournaments in the Czech Republic with the aim of finding the best forecasters in the country to create an expert forecasting team. This team is at the government’s disposal to aid its efforts to make well-informed decisions especially during situations of crisis and high uncertainty.

Our tournaments were running from March to May 2021. In these, our forecasters had been giving their predictions for no fewer than 24 questions within four rounds. These questions will concern a myriad of subjects, ranging from the impact of Covid-19, unemployment figures, mental health issues to concerns about cyber attacks.

We are proud to have been partnered with Cultivate Labs who have built the online platform where the tournaments are held and have provided us guidance on how to set up and run the tournament, and on forecast question best practices.

Related project run on Cutlivate Labs' platform is Cosmic Bazaar featured in The Economist.

We have been working in tandem with several Czech governmental institutions to provide the questions that will be posed to our forecasters. Among our partners are the National Cyber and Information Security Agency, the National Institute of Mental Health, the National Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Addiction of the Office of the Government.

Project OPTIONS is an endeavour organised by Czech Priorities, an NGO based in the Czech Republic that aims at promoting evidence-based policy making in the country. The project has received grant support from the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic.

If you have any questions or would like to get in touch with our team, please contact us at options@ceskepriority.cz.

Are you studying at UK? We are teaching a new elective course "Innovations in Policy-Making (JTM381)" at FSV from October. It will include an autumn forecasting tournament, so you can motivate each other and get some credits for it. In addition, we will discuss public decision-making and methods to improve it. The course is partly experimental and draws heavily on resources from the international community of rationalists and effective altruists. The class will be taught in AJ and the course is primarily aimed at M.A. students, but you can also apply if you are studying for a BA or are studying at another institute or faculty. We are looking forward to it!

Our partners

Featured statistics

Participants

848 participants registered
534 have passed a two-hour-long introductory training
406 made at least one prediction
216 made at least 20 forecasts
more than 60% of forecasters were educated to a Master’s degree level or higher

Engagement

10,000 forecasts were made in total
the average forecaster spent one hour per question
946 person-days were spent in total by participants
10 institutions were provided with aggregated results and selected forecast rationale

What do our forecasters think?

Below, you can find the crowd forecasts produced by all of our participants for those questions that have already been closed. Please do not hesitate to contact us at options@ceskepriority.cz if you are particularly interested in finding out more about these questions and our participants’ forecasts.

Round 4

From April 16 to April 26, 2021.

1. Will the Amendment of the Act of Law No. 247/1995 Coll. on Elections to the Parliament of the Czech Republic be fully passed, meaning include the signature of the President, in reaction to the Judgement of the Constitutional Court Pl. US 44/17 of 3 February 2021, by the end of 30 June 2021?

Number of participating forecasters: 212

Brier top 60: 0.0048

Brier others: 0.0454

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
Yes ✔	94.1 %
No	5.9 %

2. Question later cancelled: Which of the following three blogs will win the Magnesia Blog of the Year 2021 category in the Magnesia Litera competition?

Number of participating forecasters: 98

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
Do Thu Trang: Asijatka.cz	21.3 %
Jaroslav Flegr: Milý Micíku (facebooková stránka)	24.13 %
Městská policie Přerov (facebooková stránka)	54.57 %

3. Will the European Medicines Agency (EMA) authorise the Sputnik V vaccine for use in the European Union by the end of 31 July CET?

Number of participating forecasters: 221

Brier top 60: 0.2024

Brier others: 0.3707

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
Yes	34.92 %
No ✔	65.08 %

4. What percentage of respondents, living in a household with children under the age of 18, will be classified as showing symptoms consistent with moderate depression or anxiety, on the ‘‘Život během pandemie’’ (Life during a Pandemic) study’s 18-point scale in June 2021?

Number of participating forecasters: 210

Brier top 60: 0.0746

Brier others: 0.1222

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
less than 8 %	2.84 %
8 – 12 %	31 %
13 - 17 % ✔	49.27 %
18 - 22 %	14.14 %
23 % or more	2.75 %

5. How many chickenpox cases will the National Institute of Public Health record in the Czech republic during the month of May 2021?

Number of participating forecasters: 211

Brier top 60: 0.7154

Brier others: 0.8979

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
less than 500 ✔	7.53 %
501 - 1000	24.11 %
1001 - 1500	33.88 %
1501 - 2000	24.57 %
more than 2000	9.91 %

6. Will the Czech Television Council pass the resolution to remove the current Director General, Petr Dvořák, by the end of 31 July 2021?

Number of participating forecasters: 212

Brier top 60: 0.2937

Brier others: 0.5085

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
Yes	35.52 %
No ✔	64.48 %

7. Will the leader of the left-wing political party Inuit Ataqatigiit become the prime minister of Greenland during the period of 16 April 2021 – 31 July 2021 (incl.) CET?

Number of participating forecasters: 175

Brier top 60: 0.0102

Brier others: 0.0847

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
Yes ✔	96 %
No	4 %

Round 3

From April 2 to April 12, 2021.

1. What percentage of students taking the state school-leaving Maturita examinations in Mathematics, will fail their first attempt in spring 2021 or, alternatively, in summer 2021, should the examinations be postponed?

Number of participating forecasters: 239

Brier top 60: 0.2263

Brier others: 0.3196

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
less than 15 % ✔	30.62 %
15.1 – 20 %	49.45 %
20.1 – 25 %	16.57 %
25.1 – 30 %	2.77 %
more than 30 %	0.58 %

2. What percentage of respondents, participating in the ‘’Život během pandemie’’ (Life during a Pandemic) study in June 2021, will state that the Coronavirus pandemic is causing them great concerns?

Number of participating forecasters: 248

Brier top 60: 0.1827

Brier others: 0.2302

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
less than 20 %	11.44 %
21 – 30 % ✔	38.09 %
31 – 40 %	34.85 %
41 – 50 %	13.51 %
more than 50 %	2.11 %

3. Will the domestic approval rating of Vladimir Putin’s activities as the President of Russia amount to at least 65% in May 2021, according to the Levada-Center indicators?

Number of participating forecasters: 248

Brier top 60: 0.3880

Brier others: 0.4825

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
Yes ✔	56 %
No	44 %

4. Will Facebook, according to reports from credible media sources, intentionally disable the user account of at least one state leader, for the duration of at least one day (meaning 24 hours, in CET), at any point during the period from 12 April 2021 to 11 June 2021 (incl.)?

Number of participating forecasters: 249

Brier top 60: 0.0345

Brier others: 0.0530

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
Yes	12 %
No ✔	88 %

5. BONUS QUESTION: What will be the global 30-day trading volume (in million USD) of Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) by 31 July 2021?

Number of participating forecasters: 146

Brier top 60: 0.0353

Brier others: 0.1617

Possible answer (million USD)	Crowd forecast
less than 40,00 ✔	10.14 %
40,00 – 100,00	14.59 %
100,01 – 200,00	21.22 %
200,01 – 400,00	21.99 %
more than 400,00	32.06 %

6. Will gathering of more than 100 individuals be permitted in indoor spaces in Prague’s metropolitan area, without the social distancing and medical mask requirements, on 15 July 2021?

Number of participating forecasters: 250

Brier top 60: 0.0229

Brier others: 0.0586

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
Yes	14 %
No ✔	86 %

7. Will the Czech Republic successfully follow the ECDC’s (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control) guidelines and, during the week of 19 - 25 April, sequence at least 500 positive Covid-19 samples, or at least 10% of all all positive Covid-19 samples, and deliver them either to the GISAID EpiCov database or TESSy?

Number of participating forecasters: 240

Brier top 60: 0.0229

Brier others: 0.0586

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
Yes	10 %
No ✔	90 %

Round 2

From March 19 to March 29, 2021.

1. How many people will the Czech Ministry of Health record as having been fully vaccinated against Covid-19 by 30 June 2021?

Number of participating forecasters: 296

Brier top 60: 0.3188

Brier others: 0.4909

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
less than 1 750 001	2.43 %
1 750 001 – 2 250 000	8.1 %
2 250 001 – 2 500 000	15.76 %
2 500 001 – 2 750 000	20.35 %
2 750 001 – 3 000 000	21.83 %
3 000 001 – 3 250 000	16.29 %
3 250 001 – 3 500 000 ✔	9.15 %
more than 3 500 000	6.09 %

2. What total number of passengers will use the Vaclav Havel Airport in May 2021?

Number of participating forecasters: 297

Brier top 60: 0.0874

Brier others: 0.1031

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
less than 75 001	6.92 %
75 001 – 150 000 ✔	46.12 %
150 001 – 300 000	35.61 %
300 001 – 450 000	8.88 %
450 001 – 600 000	1.83 %
600 001 – 750 000	0.49 %
more than 750 000	0.15 %

3. Will in-person teaching be permitted for all lower primary school classes (pupils aged 6-10 years) or all upper primary school classes (pupils aged 11-14 years) in all regions of the Czech Republic for a period of at least ten working days in one month during April, May or June 2021?

Number of participating forecasters: 296

Brier top 60: 0.2201

Brier others: 0.4258

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
lower primary school classes – april 2021 ✔	40.38 %
lower primary school classes – may 2021 ✔	73.89 %
lower primary school classes – june 2021 ✔	82.56 %
upper primary school classes – april 2021	9.21 %
upper primary school classes – may 2021 ✔	53.17 %
>upper primary school classes – june 2021 ✔	71.37 %

4. What will be the volume of new mortgage loans (not incl. mortgage refinancing), opened by both banks and building societies in the Czech Republic in April 2021?

Number of participating forecasters: 285

Brier top 60: 0.5579

Brier others: 0.7173

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
less than 12 000,1 milionů Kč	0.29 %
12 000,1 – 15 000,0 milionů Kč	3.05 %
15 000,1 – 18 000,0 milionů Kč	13.22 %
18 000,1 – 21 000,0 milionů Kč	33.41 %
21 000,1 – 24,000,0 milionů Kč	34.42 %
24 000,1 – 27 000,0 milionů Kč	12.73 %
more than 27 000,0 milionů Kč ✔	2.89 %

5. Will the Scottish National Party win the majority in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?

Number of participating forecasters: 294

Brier top 60: 0.4745

Brier others: 0.5508

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
Yes	49.36 %
No ✔	50.64 %

6. Will the media report on a successful ransomware attack on any Czech University Hospital, or any Czech University, happening during the months of April, May or June 2021?

Number of participating forecasters: 298

Brier top 60: 0.1387

Brier others: 0.2451

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
Yes	26.78 %
No ✔	73.13 %

Round 1

From March 5 to March 15, 2021

What will be the daily increase in new Covid-19 infections reported as having occurred on April 1, 2021 in the Czech Republic?

Number of participating forecasters: 390

Brier top 60: 0.2532

Brier others: 0.3911

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
less than 5 001	3.85 %
5 001 – 7 500 ✔	18.49 %
7 501 – 10 000	32.46 %
1 0001 – 12 500	26.8 %
1 2501 – 15 000	14.03 %
1 5001 – 17 500	3.59 %
1 7501 or more	0.79 %

2. How many new personal motor vehicles will be newly registered in the Czech Republic during the first half of 2021?

Number of participating forecasters: 381

Brier top 60: 0.8929

Brier others: 0.9376

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
less than 90 001	42.09 %
90 001 – 100 000	35.86 %
100 001 – 110 000	16.04 %
110 001 – 120 000 ✔	4.28 %
120 001 or more	1.73 %

3. Will there be at least one cyber attack that will be the cause of a blackout lasting at least 15 min affecting at least 100,000 people in any EU member state during the period between March 5 and June 30, 2021?

Number of participating forecasters: 383

Brier top 60: 0.0020

Brier others: 0.0214

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
Yes	3.99 %
No ✔	96.01 %

4. Will Donald Trump call upon his followers or the public at large to join a particular social network at least once during the period between March 5 and May 15, 2021?

Number of participating forecasters: 379

Brier top 60: 0.1516

Brier others: 0.2817

Possible answer	Crowd forecast
Yes	29.74 %
No ✔	70.26 %

5. Will the Constitutional Court of the Czech Republic strike down the phrase “larger than small” which concerns the amount of particular substances in the section of the Czech penal code that is important for the criminalisation of growing cannabis and being in possession of marihuana by June 30, 2021?